Our thesis
Draft. Aschenbrenner-style framing: compute → algorithms → unhobbling → systems. We track who owns the chokepoints (EUV at ASML, foundry at TSMC, GPU at NVIDIA) and who's positioned at the inference + deployment layer.
Sub-themes we track
EUV / lithography
ASML monopoly; multi-decade durable.
Leading-edge foundry
TSMC structural; Samsung + Intel as wildcards.
GPU / accelerators
NVIDIA platform lock-in vs custom silicon.
Inference economics
Where margins land when training arms-race normalises.
Vertical AI applications
AI in defense (cross-vertical), AI in biotech (cross-vertical), enterprise.
Indicators we monitor
- •Hyperscaler capex commentary
- •EUV tool shipments + ASML book/bill
- •Foundry capacity utilisation
- •Token cost trajectory (open + closed models)
In coverage
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