Qapital Research

Vertical Thesis

Draft

Energy

Reliable baseload, the nuclear renaissance, and the grid-build of the AI era.

3

Companies in Coverage

4

Sub-themes

0

Trail signals (90d)

2026-05-20

Thesis updated

Our thesis

Draft. Core thesis to be written: nuclear baseload re-rating driven by AI compute demand, SMR economics, uranium fuel-cycle tightness, and grid reliability becoming a national-security problem.

Sub-themes we track

SMR (Small Modular Reactors)

NuScale, X-energy (private), TerraPower (private). First commercial deployments late 2020s.

Uranium fuel cycle

Cameco, enrichment capacity, HALEU supply.

Nuclear baseload utilities

Constellation, Vistra — already re-rated; question is duration.

Grid build-out

Transmission, interconnect queues, the unsexy infrastructure.

Indicators we monitor

  • AI hyperscaler PPAs with nuclear utilities
  • NRC licensing milestones
  • Uranium spot + term price
  • Power-purchase agreement disclosures