Our thesis
Draft. Three legs: legacy payment networks (Visa/Mastercard) are durable but no longer cheap; stablecoins are a real disintermediation vector with regulatory clarity emerging; neobanks have to prove unit economics now that rates aren't doing the work.
Sub-themes we track
Payment rails
V/MA duopoly economics + stablecoin threat.
Stablecoins / crypto rails
Coinbase as toll bridge, regulatory tailwind.
Neobanks
SoFi, Nu, Wise — who reaches durable double-digit ROE first.
B2B payments
Cross-border + treasury — the unloved compounders.
Indicators we monitor
- •Volumes on V/MA network
- •Stablecoin in-flow / outflow data
- •Neobank cohort retention + revenue-per-user
- •Stablecoin regulatory milestones (GENIUS, MiCA)
In coverage
View all →Recent trail signals
See trail →No smart-money signals yet. Trigger ingestion via
/admin/run-13f.