Qapital Research

Vertical Thesis

Draft

SpaceTech

Launch economics inverting, the lunar economy beginning, direct-to-cell rewriting connectivity.

3

Companies in Coverage

4

Sub-themes

0

Trail signals (90d)

2026-05-20

Thesis updated

Our thesis

Draft. Launch cost / kg has crossed a threshold where space-based infrastructure becomes a unit-economics business, not a sovereign expense. ARK-style framing: we are in the same phase relative to space as we were to the internet in 1995.

Sub-themes we track

Launch services

Rocket Lab as the credible #2 to SpaceX (private); Neutron is the test.

Direct-to-cell

AST SpaceMobile vs Starlink Direct — who scales coverage first.

Lunar economy

Intuitive Machines, CLPS contract pipeline.

Space-based ISR

Crossover with Defense vertical — constellation defense doctrine.

Indicators we monitor

  • Launch cadence + cost / kg disclosures
  • NASA CLPS award flow
  • Mobile network operator partnerships (direct-to-cell)
  • Defense space-budget line items