SpaceTech

Launch cost per kilogram has crossed the threshold where space-based infrastructure becomes a unit-economics business rather than a sovereign expense. Falcon 9 sits at roughly $1,500 to $2,500 per kg in commercial pricing; Starship targets $200 to $500 per kg at scale. That trajectory makes a class of businesses viable that simply did not pencil before: persistent ISR constellations, broadband-from-orbit, direct-to-cell connectivity, and the first credible lunar economy. The public investable surface remains narrow because most of the durable assets sit at SpaceX (private), but the public companies positioned around them are mispriced on either side.

The constellation economy is the first investable slice. Rocket Lab is the credible number two in launch, with Neutron the test that decides whether it earns a durable share of the medium-lift market. AST SpaceMobile and Iridium are the direct-to-cell plays with partnerships from major mobile network operators; Starlink Direct is the competing pressure. Intuitive Machines and the broader CLPS contract pool are the lunar economy's commercial vanguard, with NASA Artemis cadence determining the contract flow. Space-based ISR is a deliberate crossover with the Defense focus area; constellations are increasingly written into defence doctrine.

Edge sources we lean on: (1) launch cadence and cost-per-kg disclosures by operator; (2) NASA CLPS award flow and Artemis cadence; (3) mobile network operator partnership announcements (the leading indicator on direct-to-cell adoption); (4) Defense space-budget line items as the demand floor; (5) 13F flow into the listed names (RKLB, ASTS, IRDM, LUNR) as a sanity check on where institutional capital is sizing in.